"Malanga" (malanga-)
06/24/2016 at 18:13 • Filed to: Brexit
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"Malanga" (malanga-)
06/24/2016 at 18:13 • Filed to: Brexit | 0
| 14 |
So while the England and Wales voted Leave, Scotland and Northern Ireland voted overwhelmingly for Remain. We know that Scotland already partially wants to be independent (2014 Scottish Independence Referendum)... what’s the chance that the UK breaks up? That’s my #1 concern. Even if the UK enters a major depression, it’ll get out of if eventually... but a broken up UK? Oof.
Your thoughts?
For Sweden
> Malanga
06/24/2016 at 18:19 |
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You have no guns, so you’re staying in the UK
Bman76 (no it doesn't need a WS6 hood) M. Arch
> Malanga
06/24/2016 at 18:20 |
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I think they may have just lost what little remained of their empire. I was glad when Scotland stayed in 2014, but I wouldn’t blame them for leaving now.
samssun
> Malanga
06/24/2016 at 18:20 |
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I wish them the best. Brits deserve freedom from Brussels central planners, and if Scots or Irish want the same I see no issue.
djmt1
> Malanga
06/24/2016 at 18:22 |
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Northern Ireland aren’t going anywhere. There is way too much history for anyone to be dumb enough to kick that hornet’s nest. Well apart from the terrorist cunts who causes the history in the first place.
Scotland are more interesting. They could call a second referendum but it won’t be for a while. Voter fatigue has hit Scotland and of course Westminster aren’t going to humour the idea until the chaos has died down.
Plus Scotland can’t just enter the EU that’s not how the EU works. There’s till the issue with currency and the Norway dream is dead for two reasons. The oil doesn’t belong to Scotland and there’s not that many economically viable reserves left.
Plus even then there’s more to the UK. There are big divisions and class warfare has returned in force. Needless to say these next few years are gonna suck.
Honeybunchesofgoats
> djmt1
06/24/2016 at 18:33 |
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I mostly agree, but partly disagree.
Sturgeon is already preparing to table a having a second referendum in the Scottish parliament in September. Most Scots voted to remain, and, importantly a major fear tactic in 2014 was that if the Scots left the UK, they left the EU. So there are a lot of No voters who are now seeing a painful example of the cost of staying in the UK.
There is the problem with Westminster approving it, but then they’d ultimately be shooting themselves in the foot, since that would turn more people towards independence.
The big stumbling block is still getting back into the EU, since it has the be approved by all member states and Spain does not want to recognize any country that declares independence because of Catalonia. I do wonder, however, if they wouldn't go a long with it and sell it as different, since it's a case of a country being taken out of the EU trying to get back in. I also suspect that countries like Germany and France would pressure other members to accept it, just to screw the English.
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djmt1
> Honeybunchesofgoats
06/24/2016 at 18:43 |
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They won’t get back into the EU. It was the problem back then and it’s still the problem now. plus Sturgeon has been planning a second vote since Scotland said no and just waiting for an excuse.
As you said Spain is the problem and as much as they would love to screw us over to get Gibraltar they will almost certainly Veto any possible Scottish entry to prevent Catalonia from attempting anything similar.
As for Germany and France. France looks likely to switch to anti EU president at this rate and the Germans have ensured us there will be no consequences because we buy a lot more of their stuff then they buy of ours.
Jake - Has Bad Luck So You Don't Have To
> samssun
06/24/2016 at 19:01 |
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Agreed. It’s obviously going to be a rocky road ahead, but very few large political upsets are smooth sailing
vdub_nut: scooter snob
> For Sweden
06/24/2016 at 19:02 |
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Yup, that’s how we did it
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Malanga
> Bman76 (no it doesn't need a WS6 hood) M. Arch
06/24/2016 at 19:08 |
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I wouldn’t either, although I don't want it to happen. In my mind, this wasn’t the people wanting to leave the EU, this was the people wanting less interference from the EU. A stupid decision nonetheless.
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Bman76 (no it doesn't need a WS6 hood) M. Arch
> Malanga
06/24/2016 at 19:10 |
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This was the uneducated masses reacting in anger.
Cé hé sin
> Malanga
06/24/2016 at 19:10 |
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Low I’d guess. The SNP are dedicated to Scottish independence and they have to make noises about a second independence referendum but they don’t want to be forced into this by outside events. What they want is for opinion polls to show a 60% majority for independence for two years before they’ll consider going to the people and there’s still the difficulty of getting the Scottish parliament, in which they no longer have an overall majority, agreeing to this.
If they intend using the exit referendum as an encouragement for referendum no 2 and starting negotiations with the EU about either remaining as a rump of the UK - which I don’t think is on as the European Commission has already stated that this isn’t an option - or joining from scratch while the rest of the UK is negotiating its way out then they have started on a course of action whose timing is dictated by others and which presents huge difficulties and uncertainties. They have to win a referendum the outcome of which will depend on the likelihood of a simple entry to the EU, sort out the currency question as using the currency of a country soon to be out of the EU isn’t acceptable and meet the criteria for EU membership in their own right/. They have to do all of this to the backdrop of falling hydrocarbon production and low prices and a large and expensive public sector.
Nicola Sturgeon, Scottish First Minister says referendum 2 is “on the table” and that over the weekend she’ll sound out the 27 remaining EU countries. What she hasn’t said is that she actually plans a referendum and the outcome of her little chats may well be that the issue goes quietly away.
But who knows? Maybe the 27 remainers will be keen to take on a country with a weak economy just to spite the UK. But I wouldn’t put money on it.
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Malanga
> samssun
06/24/2016 at 19:11 |
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Well no matter what they're getting it, though. They deserve freedom, yes, but no complete separation. Negotiate for less restrictions, but don't leave. That's economic Russian roulette.
facw
> Honeybunchesofgoats
06/24/2016 at 19:21 |
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I don’t think Scotland would have trouble getting in, especially if they can get out of the UK (or at least decide to do so) prior to the UK leaving the EU.
Scotland would be a middle tier EU country in terms of prosperity, so it’s not like they would be a drag. I’d imagine they’d make a switch from the Pound to the Euro a requirement, but that seems like something Scotland could do, the idea that they were going to stay on the pound, was the biggest fantasy of the previous independence vote.
GhostZ
> samssun
06/24/2016 at 20:19 |
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Freedom at a cost, that is. Independence from the world economy is pretty expensive in today’s world.